The financial crisis explained to dummies in terms of capital requirements for banks: Lehman Brothers - AIG - Greece

The regulators, with Basel II, decided that against any private sector assets rated AAA banks, and against any sovereign rated as Greece was until November 2009, banks needed to hold only 1,6 percent in capital, meaning these could with those assets leverage their capital over 60 times to 1. (When holding “risky” assets like loans to entrepreneurs and SMEs they were only allowed to leverage 12 times to 1. 

On April 28, 2004 the SEC decided that was good for the Basel Committee was good enough for them and allowed Lehman to leverage over 60 times to 1 with AAA rated securities guaranteed with mortgages to the subprime sector… Since Europe were allowing their banks to do the same… the demand for these AAA securities became so huge that it overpowered all the quality controls in their manufacturing and packaging process… and Bang!

If AIG that was AAA rated guaranteed an asset, banks could dramatically reduce the capital they needed to hold against that assets, and this overwhelmed AIG’s capacity to resist selling “very profitable” loan default guarantees… and Bang!

Greece was of coursed offered loans in such amounts and in such generous terms, so their otherwise "so" disciplined and fiscally conservative governments could not resist the temptations… and Bang!

And as should have been expected not one single asset class that was perceived as risky played any role in causing the financial crisis… although of course these assets also suffered a lot when the “safe” came tumbling down.

One would think regulators would by now have discovered that banks already clear for the perceived risks with their risk premiums and the size of their exposure; and so to also force them to also clear in the capital for exactly the same risks, would cause banks to overdose on perceived risks. But no, they haven’t. So this little financial history lesson for dummies is of course primarily directed to them.

What is our major problem now? John Kenneth Galbraith explained it well: “If one is pretending to knowledge one does not have, one cannot ask for explanations to support possible objections.”

Why has not a proper independent autopsy of the financial crisis 2007-08 been done? The answer: What would be found!

When we see with how much care and dedication investigators perform the autopsy of the causes of an accident whenever a plane crashes, one can truly be surprised about how little autopsy has been performed on the 2007-08 financial crash.

But of course those performing the autopsy of a plane crash are not the designers of the plane, nor those responsible for its maintenance, nor air-traffic controllers nor, of course, those who were flying it… and so there are no conflicts of interests present in the investigation (I presume).

In the case of the Financial Crisis 2007-08 crisis any outside completely independent investigator would have determined its principal cause to be:

The very low capital requirements for banks when holding assets perceived as “safe”, and which created unmanageable perverse incentives for banks to lend or invest excessively in what was ex ante perceived as safe.

Evidences?: Just look at the debris: a) AAA rated securities and credit default swaps issued by AAA rated AIG that, at least US investment banks and European banks were allowed to leverage 62.5 times with; b) loans to sovereigns like Greece to which EU authorities had assigned a 0% risk weight, meaning no capital requirements at all; and c) loans to real estate like in Spain. Nowhere is something ex ante perceived as "risky" found to have caused any problem. What more can you need for a prosecutor to rest his case?

But since those investigating the Financial Crash 2007-08 were, by commission or omission, directly responsible for those risk weighted capital requirements, they all found it in their best interest to classify these as truths that shall not be named.

Until now their strategy has worked splendidly for them... even deregulation is denounced a thousand times more as the source of the problem than their misregulation... and some of the regulators have even been promoted, like to BIS and ECB... and other have found job working on Basel III.

PS. At least I managed to get through with some comments to the Financial Stability Board.

  

Scene 5 on the crazy reality lived while “Banking in times of the Basel Committee”

Jr. Credit Officer Martin: “Sir, I am not sure AIG deserves its AAA rating, and we keep somewhat important exposures to it. May I take a couple of our officers and assign them to do a little credit worthiness research on their own?”

Bank President Wally: “Have you gone raving mad? Do you know what that would cost? And who is going to pay us for that? The credit rating agencies have access to privileged information that AIG would never ever dream of giving to you, much less if they got hold of that you questioned their AAA rating...  So forget it! If the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Board considers that being able to get an AAA rating from a credit rating agencies merits us to being able to leverage our equity more than 60 times to 1, then those ratings must be good enough for us”

Jr. Credit Officer Martin: “But Sir?”

Bank President Wally: “No! No I do not want to hear any more buts from you! Have you no idea what the low, almost non-existent equity requirements for anything related to a good credit rating, the AAArisktocracy, has to do with the extremely high returns on equity our shareholders obtain... or with the fairly decent bonuses we get?”

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