Showing posts with label FDIC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FDIC. Show all posts
Thursday, March 1, 2018
I will pay a US$ cash bonus to the first who manage to extract clear answers from any regulator on two questions that have had me intrigued for a way too long time… so much that many tell me I am obsessive about… which of course I am.
I start with US$ 100 for each one of the answers and increase it by U$10 each month... for some time
US$100 to the first who gets a clear answer from a regulator on: Why do you want banks to hold more capital against what, by being perceived as risky has been made quite innocous, than against what, because it is perceived as safe, is much more dangerous?
And also US$100 to the first who gets a clear answer from a regulator on: Why are banks allowed to leverage much more when financing homes, than when financing the entrepreneurs who could help create jobs needed to pay utilities and service the mortgages?
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Current bank regulators should undergo a psychological test. They clearly seem to be afflicted by “false safety behavior”
I extract the following from “False Safety Behaviors: Their Role in Pathological Fear” by Michael J. Telch, Ph.D.
“What are false safety behaviors?
We define false safety behaviors (FSBs) as unnecessary actions taken to prevent, escape from, or reduce the severity of a perceived threat. There is one specific word in this definition that distinguishes legitimate adaptive safety behaviors - those that keep us safe - from false safety behaviors - those that fuel anxiety problems? If you picked the word unnecessary you’re right! But when are they unnecessary? Safety behaviors are unnecessary when the perceived threat for which the safety behavior is presumably protecting the person from is bogus.”
The risk weighted capital requirements for banks, more perceived risk more capital – less perceived risk less capital, fits precisely that of being unnecessary. If a risk is perceived the banker will naturally take defensive measures, like limiting the exposure or charging higher risk premiums. If there is a real risk that is of the assets being perceived ex ante as safe, but turning up ex post as risky.
The consequences of such false safety behavior by current bank regulators are severe:
They set banks up to having the least capital when the most dangerous event can happen, something very safe turning very risky.
Equally, or even more dangerous, it distorts the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, it hinder the needed “riskier” financing of the future, like entrepreneurs, in order to finance the “safer” present, like house purchases and sovereigns.
It creates a false sense of security because why should anyone really expect that “experts” picked the wrong risks to weigh, the intrinsic risk of the asset, instead of the risk of the asset for the banking system.
I quote again from the referenced document:
“How do false safety behaviors fuel anxiety?
There seems to be a growing consensus that FSB’s fuel pathological anxiety in several different ways. One way in which FSBs might do their mischief is by keeping the patient’s bogus perception of threat alive through a mental process called misattribution. Misattribution theory asserts that when people perform unnecessary safety actions to protect themselves from a perceived threat, they falsely conclude (misattribute) their safety to the use of the FSB, thus leaving their perception of threat intact. Take for instance, the flying phobic who copes with their concern that the plane will crash by repeatedly checking the weather prior to the flight’s departure and then misattributes her safe flight to her diligent weather scanning rather than the inherent safety of air travel.”
In this respect stress tests and living wills could perhaps be identified as “unnecessary safety actions” the “checking of the weather”.
Finally: “FSBs may fuel anxiety problems by also interfering with the basic process through which people come to learn that some of their perceived threats are actually not threats at all…threat disconfirmation…For this important perceived threat reduction process to occur, not only must new information be available but it also must be processed.”
The 2007/08 crisis provided all necessary information on that the risk weighting did not work, since all bank assets that became very problematic, had in common low capital requirements since they were perceived as safe. And this information has simply not been processed.
Conclusion, I am not a psychologist but given that our banking system operates efficiently is of utmost importance, perhaps a psychological screening of all candidates to bank regulators should be a must. Clearly the current members of the Basel Committee and of the Financial Stability Board, and those engaged with bank regulations in many central banks, would not pass such test.
I feel sorry for them, especially after finding on the web someone referring to "anxiety disorder" with: “I don’t think people understand how stressful it is to explain what’s going on in your head when you don’t even understand it yourself”
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
FDIC, don’t go there! The more similar living wills, stress tests & risk models are, the greater the systemic risks
I just received the FDICs “Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management"
It really scares me to read how concerned FDIC still is with how bankers’ develop and use their risk models, among these those for determining capital and reserve adequacy.
I just don’t get it! Let bankers do their job, which is to develop all the models they can that will facilitate their job as bankers, the best they can. And the more crazily diverse these risk models are, the better, as the less is their systemic risk.
FDIC should concern itself exclusively with the what if the bankers of some banks are not good enough when modeling.
And the same goes for living wills and stress tests. Force each bank to present what they think about that, and leave it like that.
In January 2003, while an ED of the World Bank, in a letter published by the Financial Times I argued: “Everyone knows that, sooner or later, the ratings issued by the credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic errors, about to be propagated at modern speeds”
And in April 2003, commenting on the World Bank's Strategic Framework 04-06 I wrote: "A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind."
I still hold all that to be true… now more than ever!
FDIC, please, they are the bankers and you are the regulator (and insurer), don’t confuse the roles!
FDIC, please, don't insist on being a better banker than the bankers, just be their regulator!
Thursday, January 12, 2017
The SEC Regulatory Accountability Act is even more needed for the case of Fed / FDIC bank regulations
The SEC Regulatory Accountability Act, sponsored by Financial Services Committee member Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO), passed 243-184.
Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), the Chairman of the Financial Services Committee explained it:
“Ill-advised laws like the Dodd-Frank Act empower unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats to callously hand down crushing regulations without adequately considering what impact those regulations have on jobs…The true cost of Washington red tape includes the jobs not created, the small businesses not started and the dreams of our children not fulfilled.”
Now under the bill, before issuing a regulation the SEC will be required to:
identify the nature and source of the problem its proposed regulation is meant to address;
utilize the SEC’s Chief Economist to assess the costs and benefits of a proposed regulation to ensure the benefits justify the costs;
identify and assess available alternatives; and
ensure that any regulations are consistent and written in plain language.
Further, the legislation requires the SEC to engage in a retrospective review of its regulations every five years and conduct post-adoption impact assessments of major rules.
What great news! Not a moment too soon. Now the Financial Services Committee needs to, as fast as possible, issue a similar bill with respect to the regulations applied by the Fed and FDIC to the banks… because in their case they never even defined the purpose of banks before regulating these.
The current risk weighted capital requirements for banks are totally senseless.
Not only has regulators no business regulating based on perceived risks already cleared for by banks, as they should primarily require some capital reserves to face uncertainties, but these regulations also cause banks to no longer finance the “riskier” future but mainly refinance the “safer” present and past, at great costs for the real economy and for future generations.
Here are some questions I have not been able to have regulators to answer; perhaps the Financial Service Committee needs not to go on a hunger strike to manage that.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Here follows my linked four tweets to bank regulators
The ex post risk of Basel Committee’s bank capital requirements, based on models based on ex ante risk perceptions, is huge!
All these capital requirements do is to seriously distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, for no good purpose at all.
Bank capital requirements should be based on ex post risks that considers the risks of models based on ex ante risks perceptions.
Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, Stefan Ingves, Janet Yellen, Martin Gruenberg... Capisci?
Saturday, September 10, 2016
When and where did the last bank crisis resulting from excessive exposures to something ex ante believed risky occur?
I don't know. Ask the regulators in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Board.
I mean they must have much data on this because, without it, why would they impose credit risk weighted capital requirements for banks, knowing that carried the huge cost of distorting the allocation of bank credit to the real economy?
I mean that if they use the theorem that what's perceived as risky is riskier to the bank system than what is perceived as safe, then they are indeed using a loony theorem.
I mean that if they use the theorem that what's perceived as risky is riskier to the bank system than what is perceived as safe, then they are indeed using a loony theorem.
Monday, February 8, 2016
Basel Committee and you other scheming dumb regulators, “Thanks, Great Job! Next time please keep out of our banks.”
A bank would ordinarily require lower risk premiums for the purchase of a house by someone willing to make an important down payment, and who showed sufficient income to be able to service the mortgage, than the risk premium the bank would require for riskier ventures, like that of lending to SMEs or entrepreneurs... those who though risky, could best help us to create the next generation of decent jobs.
But now, ever since regulators allowed banks to leverage more their equity with “safe” housing loans than with loans to The Risky, that meant the risk premiums offered in the market for housing loans suddenly got to be worth much more in terms of risk adjusted returns on bank equity, than those offered by The Risky.
The consequence? More loans to housing, and much less loans to SMEs and entrepreneurs than would ordinarily have been the case without this distortion.
And so now we are doomed to live unsafely in our safe houses, because of the lack of jobs we need in order to repay mortgages and utility bills.
Thanks regulators! Great Job! Next time please keep out of our banks.
Governments, your prime responsibility is to profoundly distrust your own technocrats, and to block these from dangerously meddling with our real economies.
Sunday, November 8, 2015
Thomas Hoenig of the FDIC, please indicate your colleagues, the right non-Taliban way of regulating banks.
In a speech of November 5, Thomas Hoenig, the Vice Chairman of the FDIC in a speech titled "Post-Crisis Risks and Bank Equity Capital", spelled out correctly and clearly the problem with current bank regulations.
Hoenig stated: “Global banks are not as well capitalized as some within the industry would have you believe. The fact is they remain highly leveraged and highly complicated, and should one fail, it would have systemic, destabilizing consequences. There are two different ways to address these concerns. One would require detailed rules to control firms' behaviors, structure their balance sheets, and direct their activities…
The other way to promote stability would be to simply demand more equity capital to enable banking firms to better withstand a crisis, while allowing them to run their businesses with less government direction.
The first option would require regulators to predict what activities and investments might cause future crises. It also would require them to calibrate rules in a manner that wouldn't give rise to subsequent crises. In other words, regulators would have to successfully anticipate the source of future crises, which as you know could arise from a number of activities, but mostly likely will come from something we fail to predict.
The second approach is based on equity capital and thus would not require such extraordinary insight from regulators. By design, it acknowledges that regulators cannot predict events and it ensures a safer system because well capitalized institutions are better able to withstand shocks and survive crises. Using simple leverage measures instead of risk-based capital measures eliminates relying on the best guesses of financial regulators to guide decisions.” End of quote.
Since the safer something is perceived the larger the potential for it to deliver an unexpected shock, it is of course only the second approach that can be the valid one… and the only thing we would pray for, is for that very careful attitude and steady hand required for getting us from here to there, without making it all so much worse.
Mr. Hoenig. Show your colleagues very carefully the right very careful way! There are more than enough regulatory Taliban out there.
Just asking for 20-30 percent capital requirements for banks is just playing for the galleries.
PS. Personally I would gladly settle for a goal of 8-12% of capital against all assets thereby getting rid of the worst part of current regulations, namely how the risk-weighing distorts the allocation of bank credit. How to get there? I have my ideas and the one I most like is inspired by how Chile capitalized their banks in 1985.
Just asking for 20-30 percent capital requirements for banks is just playing for the galleries.
PS. Personally I would gladly settle for a goal of 8-12% of capital against all assets thereby getting rid of the worst part of current regulations, namely how the risk-weighing distorts the allocation of bank credit. How to get there? I have my ideas and the one I most like is inspired by how Chile capitalized their banks in 1985.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
The Basel Committee for Banking Supervision flagrantly violates the precautionary principle by turning a blind eye to the dangers.
The precautionary principle states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is not harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action.
I have for years denounced that the credit-risk weighted capital requirements for banks adopted by the Basel Accord as the pillar of their regulations seriously distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy.
The consequences of too much bank credit to what is perceived as “safe” and too little credit to what is perceived is that banks do not any longer finance the risky future, our children and grandchildren need to be financed, but only refinance the safer past. With this the world is slowly but surely coming to a grinding halt.
But the Basel Committee, the Financial Stability Board, the European Commission on Banking and Finance, IMF, BIS, ECB, Fed, FDIC, BoE and all other relevant institutions just look away and do not want that issue discussed.
It sure is a flagrant violation of the precautionary principle that will cause immense damage.
Please… help me break the silence of that irresponsible mutual admiration club!
Sunday, October 11, 2015
The world’s banking system has been instructed by its regulator to give perceived credit risk a 200% weighting.
With bankers using perceived credit risk to set their interest rates and amount of exposures; and regulators using the same perceived credit risk to set their capital requirements for banks; it is clear that perceived credit risks get a 200% weighting.
Any banking system that becomes 200% sensitive to perceived credit risks, dooms itself to lend dangerously much to The Safe, the Infallible Sovereigns and the AAArisktocracy; and way too little to The Risky, like to SMEs and entrepreneurs; which is of course fatal for the real economy and therefore also to the banks.
What would have happened if Winston Churchill, when confronted with the dangers had said: "In order to avoid our houses being bombed, we need to become 200% sensitive to risk."
This whole blog is dedicated to explaining how fatally flawed current Basel Committee originated bank regulations are. Here is a recent public letter to its current chair Mr. Stefan Ingves.
Saturday, October 10, 2015
A public letter to Mr. Stefan Ingves, the chair of the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision
Mr. Stefan Ingves.
There are cowards and there are braves, ranging from extreme cowards to stupidly foolish braves, but that has less to do with how these perceive risks, and much more to do with how they assume and manage risks.
And then there are those blind to risks… so blind they do not even see a credit rating.
The Basel Committee’s risk weighted capital requirements for banks, based on precisely the same perceived risks (credit ratings) that seeing banks can already see, have clearly been designed for blind bankers.
I do not know how many such blind bankers there are, and if they exist they should not even be allowed to be in business. But, your risk weighted capital requirements, sure poses a big problem for all other banks, and for the economy in general.
Since non-blind banks already clear for any perceived credit risk, by means of interest rates and size of exposure, to force them to again, now in the capital, clear for exactly the same perceived credit risk, gives credit risk perceptions a double weight.
And any perceived risk, even if perfectly perceived, if excessively considered, leads to the wrong action.
In the case all credit risk ratings were perfect… that would then mean banks would lend more than what they should, to what is perceived “safe”, and less than what they should, to what is perceived "risky". And that misallocation of bank credit must be bad for all, especially for the real economy.
And then there are those blind to risks… so blind they do not even see a credit rating.
The Basel Committee’s risk weighted capital requirements for banks, based on precisely the same perceived risks (credit ratings) that seeing banks can already see, have clearly been designed for blind bankers.
I do not know how many such blind bankers there are, and if they exist they should not even be allowed to be in business. But, your risk weighted capital requirements, sure poses a big problem for all other banks, and for the economy in general.
Since non-blind banks already clear for any perceived credit risk, by means of interest rates and size of exposure, to force them to again, now in the capital, clear for exactly the same perceived credit risk, gives credit risk perceptions a double weight.
And any perceived risk, even if perfectly perceived, if excessively considered, leads to the wrong action.
In the case all credit risk ratings were perfect… that would then mean banks would lend more than what they should, to what is perceived “safe”, and less than what they should, to what is perceived "risky". And that misallocation of bank credit must be bad for all, especially for the real economy.
Also if credit ratings indicate a “safe” asset to be safer than what it really is, then of course a bank could collapse. Indeed this is precisely the stuff all major bank crises have been made of. No crisis has resulted from too much exposures to something ex ante perceived as risky.
Of course, if a credit rating is imperfect, in the way of informing the asset to be less risky, or less safe, than what it really is, then you might have helped banks to nail it. I doubt though your intention was really to base it on credit ratings being adequately wrong.
Mr. Stefan Ingves, may I suggest the following?
For once think of the purpose of banks being that of allocating credit efficiently to the real economy; and then go back to the drawing board, to see what non-distortionary capital requirements for banks you can come up with.
While doing so, may I suggest you remember that the purpose of the capital requirements for banks, is to cover for some unexpected losses, and not like now, for the expected credit losses?
You could still use credit ratings, if that helps you to save face… but, instead of basing it until now on those credit ratings being correct, why not require banks to have for instance 8 percent of capital against all assets, based on the risks of credit ratings, and other risk perceptions, being wrong... and other risks like that of cyber-attacks.
Please Mr. Ingves... wake up! The risk with banks has nothing to do with the risk of their assets, and all to do with how they manage the risk of their assets… Don’t make it harder than it already is for banks to manage credit risks correctly.
Yours sincerely,
Per Kurowski
PS. Could you please send a copy of this letter to Marc Carney, the current chair of the Financial Stability Board? It could also be of interest to BIS's Jaime Caruana, ECB's Mario Draghi, and Fed's Janet Yellen.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
We’ve heard a lot about predatory lending, and it should be avoided, but why allow predatory regulations?
An audit report from the office of inspector general of the FDIC broadly defines predatory lending as "imposing unfair and abusive loan terms on borrowers”
Regulators know very well that those perceived as risky have to pay higher risk premiums and have less access to bank credit than those perceived as safe.
Nonetheless regulators currently also require banks to hold much more capital against loans to those perceived as risky, when compared to what they need to hold against assets perceived as safe. And as a direct consequence those perceived as risky, when compared to those perceived as safe, will have to pay even higher interests and have even less access to bank credit.
Since that imposes unfair and abusive loan terms on borrowers… it should be regarded as predatory regulations… and of course, to top it up, by negating fair access to the opportunities for credit of those perceived as risky, these also represent a driver of inequality.
Let me quote here two passages from John Kenneth Galbraith’s “Money: Whence it came where it went” 1975.
First: “For the new parts of the country [USA’s West]… there was the right to create banks at will and therewith the notes and deposits that resulted from their loans…[if] the bank failed…someone was left holding the worthless notes… but some borrowers from this bank were now in business...[jobs created]
It was an arrangement which reputable bankers and merchants in the East viewed with extreme distaste… Men of economic wisdom, then as later expressing the views of the reputable business community, spoke of the anarchy of unstable banking… The men of wisdom missed the point. The anarchy served the frontier far better than a more orderly system that kept a tight hand on credit would have done…. what is called sound economics is very often what mirrors the needs of the respectfully affluent.”
Second: “The function of credit in a simple society is, in fact, remarkably egalitarian. It allows the man with energy and no money to participate in the economy more or less on a par with the man who has capital of his own. And the more casual the conditions under which credit is granted and hence the more impecunious those accommodated, the more egalitarian credit is… Bad banks, unlike good, loaned to the poor risk, which is another name for the poor man.”
And finally, let me just add that never ever are truly dangerous financial bank excesses built up with assets perceived as risky; these are always caused by excessive bank exposure to what is perceived ex ante as safe but that ex-post tum out to be risky… and so all this odious regulatory discrimination against the risky… is all for nothing.
PS. “If one is pretending to knowledge one does not have, one cannot ask for explanations to support possible objections” John Kenneth Galbraith dixit.
Saturday, September 12, 2015
Here are 7 questions on bank capital regulations that US Congressmen and Governors should ask the Fed, FDIC and OCC.
Gentlemen
We have been made aware that currently banks are required to hold more capital, meaning equity, when lending to those perceived as safe from a credit risk point of view, like many sovereigns and private entities with good credit ratings, than what banks need to hold in capital when lending to those perceived as more risky, like SMEs and entrepreneurs.
Notwithstanding that sounds intuitively as quite reasonable, one can also argue the following:
Those perceived as safe from a credit point of view, without these regulations, already count with the benefit of larger loans and lower interest rates; while those perceived as risky have less access to bank credit and have to pay higher interest rates. Mark Twain’s saying that a banker is he who lends you the umbrella when the sun shines, but wants it back when it looks like it is going to rain, comes to mind.
So these capital requirements allow banks to leverage more their equity, and the support they in many ways receive from society, many times more when lending to The Safe than when lending to The Risky; and so banks can earn much higher risk adjusted returns on equity when lending to The Safe than when lending to The Risky.
As a result, these capital requirements enlarge the natural differences in access to bank credit between The Safe and The Risky. For instance we could say these regulations artificially favors American banks lending to European sovereigns and highly rated corporations, over lending to American small businesses and entrepreneurs.
And so we must ask you:
Q. Is such regulatory risk-aversion, which distorts the allocation of bank credit, a valid principle for regulating banks in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave?
Q. Do we not owe our descendants the same willingness to take risks as that which our fathers allowed our banks to take to get us here?
Q. Cannot it be said of such regulations, by creating incentives for these to refinance the safer past, impede banks from financing the riskier future?
Q. Is not fair access to bank credit an indispensable part of generating the opportunities that helps to reduce inequalities?
Q. Do we not have something called the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, Regulation B, which would seem to forbid this type of regulatory discrimination?
Q. Since the purpose of capital requirements for bank is to shield it against unexpected losses, how can it be you base these on the expected credit losses?
Q. Since what is perceived as risky never generate dangerous excessive financial exposures, that honor goes to what is perceived as safe but ends up being risky, do these regulations really help to build up a safer banking system?
Thank you... oh by the way, since I also heard that your capital requirements are portfolio invariant it just occurred to me to also ask: Should we not require banks to hold capital against the risk of their exposures instead of the credit risk of their assets?
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
If the US stops distorting the allocation of bank credit to the real economy… does Europe dare to be left behind?
For 6.000 (out of 6.400) traditional US banks those that hold, effectively, zero trading assets or liabilities; no derivative positions other than interest rate swaps and foreign exchange derivatives; and whose total notional value of all their derivatives exposures - including cleared and non-cleared derivatives - is less than $3 billion...
Thomas M. Hoenig, the Vice Chairman of the FDIC is proposing the following:
“A bank should have a ratio of GAAP equity-to-assets of at least 10 percent. The substantial majority of [US] community banks already have equity-to-asset ratios of 10 percent or higher, and the number is in reach for those that do not.”
“Exempting traditional banks from all Basel capital standards and associated capital amount calculations and risk-weighted asset calculations.”
If approved, that would effectively mean the US begins to distance itself from the pillar of Basel Committees bank regulations, the credit-risk-weighted capital requirements.
Since those capital requirements odiously discriminate against the fair access to bank credit of borrowers deemed “risky”; and thereby distorts bank credit allocation, that would mean that most US banks would be able to return to real lending to the real economy.
Does Europe dare to be left behind in such development?
PS. Its about time the US suspended such regulatory discrimination, which should never have been allowed, according to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (Regulation B)
Saturday, May 2, 2015
We might want to consider “Friends and Family” weighted equity requirements for banks.
Currently the equity requirements for banks are credit-risk-weighted… more-credit-risk-more-equity and so less-credit-risk-less-equity.
That is dumb because never ever has a major bank crisis resulted from excessive lending to someone perceived as “risky”, these have always resulted from excessive lending to what was ex ante perceived as “safe” but that ex post turned out to be risky.
The only case when individual banks have gotten into problems extending excessive credits to somebody perceived as risky is when there had been some close connections between bank and borrower.
It could therefore be a case for analyzing Friends & Family weighted equity requirements for banks… though it is hard to think of who could perform an adequate rating of such relations… as we would also need to rate his F&F relation with bank and borrower.
That said, the least we must do, is to get rid of the credit-risk-weighted equity requirements when applied to those who are not F&F. These, for absolutely no reason, odiously impede their fair access to bank credit. That kills opportunities and therefore drives inequality.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Current credit-risk-weighted capital (equity) requirements for banks, besides being stupid and dangerous, are immoral
This is what the current bank regulators have decreed, on their own, without any real consultations:
The lower the perceived credit risk of an asset, the lower the equity a bank has to have against it… and so of course, the higher the perceived credit risk of an asset, the higher the equity a bank has to have against it.
It is stupid: because never ever have major bank crises resulted from excessive bank exposures to what is perceived as risky, these have always resulted, no exceptions, from excessive bank exposure to something perceived as save.
It is dangerous (even from a national security perspective): because allowing banks to leverage their equity, and the support they receive from taxpayers, differently based on perceived risks, will seriously distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy and thereby weaken it.
And it is immoral: because having those perceived as risky and who already, precisely because of those perceptions, have less and more expensive access to bank credit, to have even lesser and even more expensive access to bank credit, is an odious and immoral regulatory discrimination, which kills opportunities and increases inequality.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry, but current bank regulations are just as loony as they can be
With Basel II, the regulators decreed for instance that the risk-weight of a private corporation rated AAA to AA, was 20%, while the risk weight of a corporation rated below BB-, was 150%.
Since their basic bank equity requirement was 8 percent, that meant that banks needed to hold only 1.6 percent in equity against any loan to an AAA to AA rated corporation, while having to hold 12 percent in equity when lending to a corporation rated below BB-.
And that meant that banks were allowed to leverage their equity over 60 times to 1 when lending to an AAA to AA rated corporation, but limited to a 8 to 1 leverage in the case of lending to BB- rated private corporations.
And all that… in the name of bank safety!
As if there was any sort of danger that many banks in the banking system would dangerously overexpose themselves to BB- rated private corporations?
As if the danger does not lie in the possibility that an AAA to AA rated corporation, those which bankers love to lend to, could suddenly turn up to be worse than a BB-rated private corporation.
Regulators, like Jaime Caruana, Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, Stefan Ingves and some other are just like telling kids…
If you go into that dark forest that looks horrible to you...
then we will force you to eat broccoli and spinach...
But, if you stay out on the fields where everything looks safe and beautiful...
then we will allow you to eat as much chocolate cake and ice cream you want.
This even though you could become dangerously obese (or too big to fail)
It can also be rephrased as if you eat broccoli you must eat spinach too but, if you eat chocolate cake you can have as much ice cream as you want.
How naïve and infantile can it be to believe that what’s perceived risky is what’s really risky?
And worse, much worse, some banks, the biggies, the TBTF, those would hurt the most if they failed, they are allowed to run their own internal models to decide on how much broccoli or spinach (not) to eat
“May God defend me from my friends: I can defend myself from my enemies” Voltaire
“A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John A Shedd
“One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.” George Orwell
“There are some mistakes it takes a Ph.D. to make”. Patrick Moynihan?
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