Showing posts with label basements. Show all posts
Showing posts with label basements. Show all posts
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Let us suppose a continuation of regulators who, in order for banks not to crash under their respective watch, decreed that banks should concentrate all their activity lending to “infallible” sovereigns, to those with good credit ratings, to the safe financing of houses; and to stay away from lending to all those who are perceived as risky.
That because they, like bankers, they looked at what could be risky for banks, and not as they should have done, as regulators, at the risks that might not be perceived.
And the consequences of it is that millions of those who though they are perceived as risky could help the economy move forward and generate new jobs, such as SMEs and entrepreneurs, have their access to bank credit denied.
And so hundred of millions of our young will not get jobs and have to remain living in their parents’ basements… that is unless they revolt and send their parents down to the basements.
And yet, sooner or later, especially large bank crisis will result, because of unexpected events, or because of excessive exposures to something that was perceived, decreed or concocted as safe, but that ex post turned to be risky. And these crises are made so much worse when banks have to hold especially little capital against those ex-safe assets.
This is precisely what the risk-weighted capital requirement for the banks created by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision cause.
These allow banks to leverage more with what is “safe” than with what is “risky” and thereby obtain higher risk adjusted returns on capital with what is “safe” than with what is “risky”.
As a direct consequence, millions of job opportunities for our young have already been lost forever; and the first big crisis already occurred in 2007-08, only that in this case the central bankers, with their quantitative easing and ultra low interest rates, kicked that can forward.
And here we are, sitting on artificially inflated stock market valuations and house prices that, when true need arises, will never be able to be converted back into the same effective real purchase power that was invested in them.
And all that huge sovereign debts accumulated in the process can only be repaid with help of the printing machine, and never in terms of the real purchase power that was invested in its generation.
And the human sufferings, and the consequent strains all this will impose on our social fabric will be immense… especially when like now in many countries it will be compounded by big demographic changes.
Does all this not indicate that these regulations could be classified as a horrendous and perhaps even punishable regulatory crime against humanity?
Or will the inquisition of the high priests of bank regulations just excommunicate me, like any Galileo?
Where do I nail these my Theses about the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, so as to at least achieve a discussion of them?
Or will the inquisition of the high priests of bank regulations just excommunicate me, like any Galileo?
Thursday, December 8, 2016
FSB’s Mark Carney is no one to lecture us on inequality, lack of opportunities and intergenerational divide
Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, in a speech titled “The Spectre of Monetarism” December 5, 2016 said:
“For both income and wealth, some of the most significant shifts have happened across generations. A typical millennial earned £8,000 less during their twenties than their predecessors. Since 2007, those over 60 have seen their incomes rise at five times the rate of the population as a whole. Moreover, rising real house prices between the mid-1990s and the late 2000s have created a growing disparity between older homeowners and younger renters... At the same time as these intergenerational divides are emerging, evidence suggests that equality of opportunity in the UK remains disturbingly low, potentially reinforcing cultural and economic divides.”
But Mark Carney is also the current Chairman of G20’s Financial Stability Board and, as such, one of the primarily responsible for current bank regulations… the pillar of which is the risk weighted capital requirements for banks.
That piece of regulation decrees inequality resulting from negating “the risky”, like SMEs and entrepreneurs fair access to bank credit.
That piece of regulation favors the financing of “safe” basements where jobless kids can stay with their parents over “riskier” ventures that could provide the kids in the future the jobs, so that they had a chance to become responsible parents too.
That piece of regulations is a violation of that holy intergenerational bond Edmund Burke spoke about.
Carney also said: “Higher uncertainty has contributed to what psychologists call an affect heuristic amongst households, businesses and investors. Put simply, long after the original trigger becomes remote, perceptions endure, affecting risk perceptions and economic behaviour. Just like those who lived through the Great Depression, people appear more cautious about the future and more reluctant to take irreversible decisions. That means less willingness to put capital to work and, ultimately, lower growth.”
If any have suffered form “affect heuristic” that is the bank regulators. Mixing up ex ante perceptions with ex post possibilities, these decided on “more risk more capital – less risk less capital”, without: defining the purpose of banks “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John A Shedd; or looking at what has caused bank crises in the past “May God defend me from my friends, I can defend myself from my enemies” Voltaire
Mark Carney also said “For two-and-a-half centuries, the prices of government bonds and the prices of equities tended to move together: the typical bull market entails rising equity prices and falling bond yields, with the reverse in bear markets. Since the mid-2000s, however, this pattern has reversed and bond yields have tended to fall along with equity prices”.
He is not able to connect that to the fact the risk weight given to sovereign debt is 0%, as compared to one of 100% for We the People… and that capital scarce banks therefore shed “riskier” assets in favor of public debt. As statist, Carney also ignores the fact that regulation has subsidized public borrowings, paid of course by negating credit opportunities to SMEs and entrepreneurs.
Must one go on a hunger strike in order to get some contestability from the Basel Committee or the Financial Stability Board?
Sunday, October 30, 2016
With risk weighted capital requirements, Basel Committee’s regulators fed the banking system brutish misinformation
If you have $100.000 to invest you might invest more and at a lower interest rate in what you perceive as safe, as compared to how you would invest in what you perceive as risky. But, even so, you would never ever think of your $1 invested in what you perceive as safe, to be any different than the $1 you have invested in what you perceive as risky.
That is not the current case with banks. With the risk weighed capital requirements for banks, they have been told that $1 invested in what is perceived as safe, is worth much more than $1 invested in what’s is perceived as risky. That because regulators allow banks to leverage the former $1 much more than the latter; which means that $1 invested in what is ex ante perceived, decreed or concocted as safe, produce the banks a much higher expected risk-adjusted return on equity, than $1 invested in what is ex ante perceived or decreed as risky.
For instance Basel II, with its 8% basic capital requirement set a 20% risk weight for AAA rated private assets and 100% risk weights for unrated SMEs. That allow banks to leverage their equity, and the support they received from society 62.5 times with AAA rated assets and only 12.5 to 1 with loans to SMEs. That resulted into that for a bank to lend to a SME, as compared to lending to an AAA rated borrower, carried the cost of 50 times lesser leverage opportunities.
That signified that banks, in order to keep shareholders happy with high risk adjusted returns, and management bonuses high, had to keep to what was perceived as safe and abandon lending to what was perceived as risky.
So banks no longer finance the “riskier” future, they only refinance the “safer” past.
So banks are dangerously overpopulating safe havens and, for the real economy, dangerously underexploring riskier bays.
So banks are gladly financing those “safe” basements where jobless kids can live with their parents, and not those “risky” SMEs that stand a chance to create the jobs that could allow the kids to afford to become parents too.
Damn those regulators who manipulated and still are manipulating the allocation of bank credit this way. They should be shamed and banned forever.
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