The financial crisis: The simple why and what to do?

When I talk about an authorized leverage of "64.5 to 1" the real figure is "62.5 to 1". Since there could be some debate on whether I was trying to see if you were following me, catch you sleeping, or because I did not use a calculator I made a mistake... be my guest and pick any explanation you choose, it won´t matter anyhow for the conclusions… and I will not repeat the class just because of that.

We need to stop the credibility asymmetry that exists in the credit risk information market

One of the problems with credit ratings is that they are never sufficiently publicly debated, unless when it is too late, and when that happens then it is mostly the case of a small questioner against the mother of all father authorities in the markets.

Too often have I heard bankers ask me “Per, how on earth do you think I could convince my colleagues on the Board that the credit rating agencies were getting it so extraordinarily wrong that we should exit from what seemed to be an extraordinarily good business for us?”

In our efforts to solve the asymmetry in information we have increased the asymmetry of the credibility with respect to financial information, making it now almost impossible for divergent opinions to nudge the markets on the margin, and being only considered when the causes for the divergence become much too apparent, which is of course then much too late.

The first thing that should happen is that the credit rating agencies should be required to post, real time, all the questions and answers received with respect to every particular ratings, so to allow the market to express their viewpoints and to allow configure the necessary opinion majorities that could force the credit rating agencies to revise what they are doing.

If that Bank Director friend of mine could have referred to a place where those same suspicions were uttered by others, then he would stand a much better chance of being heard.

I repeat. We need an official online forum where we can question each and every single credit rating. That’s transparency!

The risks of following the wimps from Basel

Stating that “poor credit-rating practices” have brought on the current crisis is part of what brought us here, because the fact is that the better the credit-rating practices, the more we risk following the practitioners into the wilderness.

The minimum capital requirements for banks based on credit rating of risks, introduces an formal regulatory risk adversion against “risks of default” that will set us up to all other type of much more dangerous risks.

Who dares to tell me that avoiding default risks is all financing is about?

From now on are the bailouts we going to see only to be the result of faultily measured risks and not of those risks that society incurs to move it forward?

Currently our biggest problem is that most have completely bought the silly one track-mind agenda of our financial regulators… the Basel wimps!

Financial regulation is much too serious to be left in the hands of the members of the mutual admiration club of financial regulators.

If we are going to waste taxpayer’s money let us at least assure the crisis has been worth it. Never in life have I seen such a useless crisis than the current one that has only produced millions of people to move in into their homes only to be evicted a couple of months and many tears later.

The question!

On one side, given the very accommodative stance of central banks, there was an ocean of resources.

On the other, side given the honest to good real greed of intermediaries for pushing through deals even if that means bending the meaning of common sense, there were an ocean of homes to be sold and purchased.

The channel that allowed for the two oceans to crash into each other and create this ultimate financial tsunami were the AAA ratings awarded by the credit rating agencies that had been themselves empowered to do so by the financial regulators.

In a letter to the Editor of the Financial Times published May 11, 2003 I said “Everyone knows that, sooner or later, the ratings issued by the credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic errors, about to be propagated at modern speeds".

To me my comment illustrated what should be a natural concern for financial regulators expected foremost to be wise… but they did not seem to care.

To me my comment illustrated what should be a natural concern for influential economists and financial experts… but no one said anything.

How come?

In being able to answer that question, forthrightly, lies the way out of our current financial predicaments and our only chance for not ending up even worse.

In making the truly responsible truly accountable lie our best chances for taking that way out.

Mr. Alan Greenspan and friends. Look at what old soldiers do and learn to fade away. We do not need your search for excuses.

On the discrimination based on the financial profiling and risk-based pricing

Risk-based pricing actually requires creating the misinformation that allows for making borrowers who should get lower rates agree to pay the higher rates that cover the losses of those that should not have been given credit… at least not at these high impossible rates.

Risk based pricing, which is similar to placing persons that after some doubtful genetic test are presumed to be especially exposed to an illness in a separate insurance pool, could be causing much of the growing social inequality that is currently attributed by some to globalization. Risk profiling, for a discriminatory purpose, is prohibited in most spheres of our social relations, except in lending where it is very much cheered, by most.

John, Paul and Peter, because of their opaque FICO have to pay high interest. John, though he might have been able to do so at lower rates, is not able to service the debt and loses. Paul, utterly responsible, services it, barely, and Peter who is in this group because no ones no why meets the payments with ease. Question: Any winners?

John should for a starter not have been given the credit, at least not at the high rate, and both Paul and Peter, having been able to service the debt at high rates evidenced de facto they merited lower rates. Answer: No winners! Except of course those who are not to be named!

How libertarians can shut up about the financial information cartels that chain the markets to neo-non-transparent-regulations, I have never understood.

How developed countries’ progressives can shut up about the discrimination implicit in risk based pricing and that could be introducing more inequality in the societies than what they sometimes attribute to globalization, I have never understood.

The financial markets are not free

We will not have free financial markets while our financial regulators insist on supporting and empowering the financial risk information cartel that puts up traffic signs all over the word, supposedly showing the route to different risk areas.