In Europe banks no longer finance the future

These just refinance the past [and present]... (and so Europe is going down, down, down)

Let me refer again to the tragically misguided banking regulations in the world, designed by some who do not care one iota for the real economy, that which are not the banks.

The main principle of such regulations are capital requirements (equity) based on perceived risks. More risk more capital, less risk less capital.

And that results in the bank can expect to earn much higher expected risk-adjusted returns on equity , when financing the safe (refinancing the past) than when finance the risky (the future).

And that results in that the economies do not take enough risks to produce its absolutely-safes of tomorrow ... but will dedicated itself to milk the cows of yesterday, to extract their last drop of milk.

And all sheer stupidity. Regulators ignored, and still ignore, that perceived risks, such as those reflected in credit ratings, have already been cleared for by banks and markets when setting interest rates, the amounts of the loans, duration and other clauses, And so when the same perceptions of risk, are reused, now to determine the required capital, this only ensures that the banking system overdoses on perceived risk.

They also forgot that their regulatory risk with banks has nothing to do with the perceived risks of the bank's customers ... and everything to do with how the bankers perceive and react to these perceptions.

And that the above causes distortions in the allocation of bank credit in the real economy, still nothing is discussed.

For an older person, retired, with barely sufficient savings, a financial advisor must recommend a super safe conservative investment strategy which provides liquidity, traditionally bonds. But, in the case of a young professional, who is saving for retirement in 30 years, the obligatory advice is to take much more risks, such as buying stocks.

And so you can say that bank regulators follow rules adequate for the old, and not for the young. I assure you that if the European youth, such as that in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, lifted their eyes just a little while from their iPads, or similar devices, and realized what was being done to them, many sites would burn...like Troy.

Worse yet, the regulators require banks to have an 8% capital when lending to an ordinary citizen entrepreneur, but allow these to lend to their governments, holding no capital at all. This has quietly introduced a perverse communism, and disrupted all price-risk equations in capital markets. Of course, all in close association with other beneficiaries like the members of the AAAristocracy.

But, you might say ... "At least we will have safe banks". Do not delude yourself. All banking crisis, whenever not a case of outright fraud, have been unleashed by excessive lending to what ex ante was perceived as absolutely safe, and which, ex post, turned out to be risky, and no banking crisis in history, has resulted because of excessive loans to what was correctly [and timely] perceived as risky.

As a young man, in Sweden, in the churches where from time to time I went, they sang psalms which implored, "God, make us daring". European regulators, with respect to their banks, are now rewarding cowardice... (and so Europe is going down, down, down)

Translated from El Universal

PS. My 2019 letter to the Financial Stability Board

PS. And the Academia kept silence

Warning about Basel bank regulations

Denying a loan for only seeking to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system could mean the loss of a unique opportunity to achieve economic growth.

All development involves risks, so its path, by definition, is littered with bankruptcies and tears, framed in the human oscillation of one little step forward and 0.99 little steps back. Perhaps then the best way to regulate is to allow some banks to fail, too, before their problems have calcified or become too great.

Developed countries may never have developed under the yoke of puritanical financial regulation, hence my insistence since 1997 on the need for the development perspective to be considered when regulating. Paraphrasing someone; regulation of the financial system is too important to be left in the hands of regulators and bankers. (See note)

Furthermore, in a world that so much preaches the benefits of the invisible hand of the market, with its millions of mini-regulators, we are surprised that Basel delegates, without question, so much responsibility in the hands of a very few and very fallible credit rating agencies.

Basel has recently come under significant criticism:

The World Bank in its 'Global Financial Development of 2003', referring to the new ways of calculating capital requirements, known as Basel 2, warns both about the risk of making access more expensive and more difficult for developing countries to financial sources, such as favoring international banks to the detriment of domestic banks.

Dr. Alexander Kern, from the University of Cambridge, recently stated at a seminar organized by the G24 (developing countries), that because standards have been developed almost exclusively by European countries (G10), they lack the transparency and legitimacy necessary to accept that they are subject to a quasi-mandatory international legalization process.

The comptroller of the United States Currency, in charge of supervising 55% of the banking system in his country, declared his disagreement with the Basel 2 regulations, and even said that they may simply ignore them.

Friends, it may be worth including in all encyclopedias issued by Basel: 'Warning, excessive banking regulations in Basel can be very detrimental to the development of your country'

Note: “War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men” Georges Clemenceau

PS. Sometime later I found out about the bank capital (equity) requirements with risk weights of 0% government and 100% citizens, as if bureaucrats know better what to do with credit than e.g., small businesses and entrepreneurs. If I was to help finance development in developing (and in developed) countries, the first condition for doing so would be to eliminate such loony regulations.

El Universal

PS. This I wrote while being an Executive Director of the World Bank 2002-2004

PS. Mi first Op-Ed ever June 12, 1997 Puritanism in banking

PS. Most of my Op-Eds in El Universal disappeared from the web when I was censored by the new owners in 2014