Neoliberalism’s history is not being correctly recorded

The two policies most mentioned in connection with neoliberalism (please google it) are “privatization”, referring to that the private sector knows better, and “deregulation”, referring to that it's better when the government interferes less. And one of the moments most mentioned about when neoliberalism crumbled, is the 2008 global financial crisis GFC.

But, in 1988, with Basel I, bank capital requirements changed from one single capital requirement e.g., 10 percent against all assets, to multiple risk weighted requirements, and with its most defining weights being 0% the government, 100% citizens. Basel III, the short version, contains 1626 pages.

So, banks being allowed to leverage more their capital... meaning making it easier for banks to earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity with government debt than with loans to e.g., small businesses and entrepreneurs, please, what has that to do with the private sector knowing better what to do than the public sector?

So, deregulation, please, has that not much more to do with putting regulations (with all its possible miss-regulations) in overdrive?

And please, would there ever have been a 2008 GFC if banks had been limited to leverage their equity 10 times with AAA to AA rated mortgage-backed securities, and not the 62.5 times European banks and US investment banks 2004’s Basel II allowed them to do?

Does arguing this make me defender of neoliberalism? No and Yes! 

I often identified the privatizations, for instance of utilities, as just a trick by the bureaucrats in turn to lay their hands on some easy fiscal revenues, which would later have to be repaid by us consumers through higher tariffs.

But, do I believe that small businesses and entrepreneurs know better what to do with bank credit than the bureaucrats not personally responsible for the repayment of it do? You bet!

Has the end of neoliberalism in 1988 been recorded for the history books? No! There's surely many who even swear it is still alive and kicking.

PS. You don't have to just take my word on it: “Assets for which bank capital requirements were nonexistent, were what had most political support: sovereign credits. A simple ‘leverage ratio’ discouraged holdings of low-return government securities” Paul Volcker

The regulatory distortion that shall not be understood… or at least not be named

My twitter thread.

The regulatory distortion that shall not be understood… or at least not be named.

After the operational costs and the perceived credit risks have been cleared for with higher or lower cost/risk adjusted interest rates, we get the expected risk adjusted return of a bank asset.

If a bank asset produces an expected risk adjusted return of 1 percent, then, if the capital requirement is 8 percent, it can be leveraged 12.5 times and it will produce an expected risk adjusted return on bank equity of 12.5 percent. 

But if a bank asset produces an expected risk adjusted return of 1 percent, and the capital requirement is only 2.8 percent, it can be leveraged 35 times, and it will produce an expected risk adjusted return on bank equity of 35 percent.

So, exactly the same expected risk adjusted return on assets, if deemed “safe” by regulators, e.g., residential mortgages, could produce almost three times the expected risk adjusted return on bank equity than if regulators deem it “risky”, e.g., loans to small businesses.

The consequence?

For the bank system, dangerously too many residential mortgages, most at lower than their correct risk-adjusted interest rates, and, for the economy, dangerously too few loans to small businesses, most at higher than their correct risk-adjusted interest rates.

Those perceived less creditworthy and who always got less credit and paid higher rates were, with this, also declared less worthy of credit. Does that promote or decrease inequality?

And since banks are subject to capital requirements mostly based on perceived credit risks, not misperceived risks or unexpected events, e.g., pandemic or war, they will now stand there naked, just when we surely need them the most.

Basel Committee… Good Job!

And what if the bank capital requirement is much lower and the allowed leverage much higher for government debt, Treasuries?

Well then, the regulators are really empowering the Bureaucracy Autocracy with loads of credit at ultra-low rates… and this even before the QEs.

And don’t just take my word for it.

“Assets for which bank capital requirements were nonexistent, were what had most political support: sovereign credits. A simple ‘leverage ratio’ discouraged holdings of low-return government securities” Paul Volcker

https://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2018/12/september-2-1986-was-tragic-night-when.html

https://twitter.com/PerKurowski/status/1521865964450725889?s=20&t=22OHr9fVrCTrNc-0VkcuuQ