Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Imagine what much good some more “daring” bank regulations could do for the real economy.

Currently capital requirements for banks are much lower for exposures to what is perceived as “absolutely safe” than for what is perceived as “risky”. It may sound logical, but it is not.

That only helps banks to earn, for no good reason, much higher risk-adjusted returns on equity when lending to what is perceived as absolutely safe, than when lending to what is perceived as risky. And that only guarantees that when something ex ante perceived as absolutely safe, ex-post turns out to be absolutely risky, that banks will stand there holding humongous failed exposures against little or no capital.

Imagine instead if the capital requirements for banks were slightly lower for what is perceived as risky than for what is perceived as absolutely safe.

That would give the banks and all their extraordinary smart number crunchers the incentives to actively go out and look for opportunities in lending to the small and medium businesses, the entrepreneurs, the start-ups. Can you imagine what that could do to the dynamism of our real economy and the creation of jobs?

Yes I hear you “But would that not increase the risk for the banking system?” No! on two counts.

First, let us not forget we are talking here about exposures to what is perceived as “risky”, meaning Mark Twain’s banker unwillingly lending out the umbrella when it rains, and not about the truly potentially dangerous exposures to what is perceived as absolutely safe, meaning Mark Twain’s banker eagerly lending out the umbrella when the sun shines.

Second, let us not forget that there is nothing better to keep a banking system safe, than a healthy and sturdy real economy, and that no banks could survive, no matter how safe, if the real economy really comes tumbling down.

Friends, do not our young unemployed youngsters deserve some more daring bank regulations?

I sure think so.