Thursday, December 19, 2019
On Minsky moments
“In many cases even trying to regulate banks runs the risk of giving the impression that by means of strict regulations, the risks have disappeared. History is full of examples of where the State, by meddling to avoid damages, caused infinite larger damages”
“Old agricultural traditions of burning a little each year, thereby getting rid of some of the combustible materials, was much wiser than no burning at all, which only guarantees disaster and scorched earth, when fire finally breaks out, as it does, sooner or later. Therefore a regulation that regulates less, but is more active and trigger-happy, and treats a bank failure as something normal, as it should be, could be a much more effective regulation. The avoidance of a crisis, by any means, might strangely lead us to the one and only bank, therefore setting us up for the mother of all moral hazards—just to proceed later to the mother of all bank crises.”
“Everyone knows that, sooner or later, the ratings issued by the credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic errors, about to be propagated at modern speeds”
The Basel Committee’s credit risk weighted bank capital requirements cause our banks to be dangerously overexposed to what’s expected, and to be woefully unprepared for the unexpected.
Current risk weighted bank capital requirements guarantee especially large bank crises, caused by especially large exposures to what’s perceived as especially safe but might not be, and is held against especially little capital.
"A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind."